Ruth’s Oscar Picks
My first memory of watching the Oscars was in 1983. For those who remember, that was the year of "Gandhi," "ET," "Missing," and "An Officer and a Gentleman." Meryl Streep won for "Sophie's Choice," and Jessica Lange for "Tootsie." I have been watching the annual broadcast ever since, often with a mix of appreciative awe and eye-rolling annoyance, at once reveling in its guilty pleasure and frustrated by its stagnant predictability. The Oscars are like obligatory family Sunday dinners. You don't want to miss those friendly faces and familiar behaviors, and simultaneously, you can't help but feel annoyed. There is the perennial discussion around the relevance of award shows, which, given the quickly changing production and distribution landscape, has taken on a new urgency, and there is the question of representation, which continues to be at the forefront, and rightly so, in my opinion. There's the yearly debate around who will win and who should win and discussions around the inevitable nomination snubs.
Picking Oscar winners can feel as impossible as picking a favorite child. Although many of us often agree on a certain baseline of excellence in screenwriting, acting, cinematography, directing, and acting, distinguishing among the best efforts that have already risen to the top by virtue of their nomination, like the proverbial cream, can be daunting. In addition, we often face the dilemma of choosing apples and oranges. I felt this distinctly in this year's animated shorts category. Finally, movies are deeply subjective. Despite the fascinating ability of film images to harness common humanity and universal emotions, the films are perceived and received by us as viewers in the context of our own lives. Janet Gaynor's Oscar-winning performances in "Seventh Heaven" and "Sunrise" from almost a century ago still move me as they did when I first saw them three decades ago. And yet, I am acutely aware that these same performances leave many people today shrugging indifferently. The twenty-something me would probably not have appreciated this year's nominees, such as "Anatomy of a Fall" and "Perfect Days" as much as today's version of me does. Despite some of these challenges, one thing hasn't changed: I continue to be in awe of the potential of the moving image to touch and give meaning to our lives.
David Bordwell, who sadly passed away last week and whose work more than any other informed my appreciation of movies, expressed this sentiment in a forward to his friend Roger Ebert's book The Great Movies III…
Taken in all their variety, films can shape our most fundamental feelings and guide us toward a deeper understanding of the world and our place in it. Movies constitute a shared culture, a kaleidoscopic filter through which life takes on fresh meanings.
[Please stay tuned for the upcoming review of Bordwell's Perplexing Plots: Popular Storytelling and the Poetics of Murder on this website]
So why Oscar predictions on a site devoted to female detectives? At the most general level, the unveiling of the Oscars is an annual mystery event. On our blog site, we like to celebrate female protagonists on the screen, and while many of this year's nominees don't necessarily showcase females or the mystery genre, some do. These justification attempts are tenuous at best. More pointedly, this site is about sharing what we love and what moves us. In this spirit, I am presenting my Oscar predictions and thoughts on some of the nominations. As Kristin Thompson rhetorically posits in her wise take on Oscar prognostication:
How many people who follow the Oscar and other awards races do so because they expect the results to reveal to them what the truly best films of the year were?
So, it is with a huge grain of salt that I offer the following:
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Bradley Cooper in "Maestro"
Colman Domingo in "Rustin"
Paul Giamatti in "The Holdovers"
Cillian Murphy in "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright in "American Fiction"
My clear pick here is Cillian Murphy. Performances based on actual people can be tricky, as we all know, and Murphy's portrayal felt the most convincing.
I appreciated Colmon Domingo's Rustin, but his nuanced performance was lost in a film that didn't ultimately come together for me. I am deeply grateful to "Rustin" for bringing Bayard Rustin and his outsized and undervalued role in the civil rights movement to life.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Sterling K. Brown in "American Fiction"
Robert De Niro in "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr. in "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling in "Barbie"
Mark Ruffalo in "Poor Things"
I like Ryan Gosling in this category. He captured the essence of what I imagine a real-life Ken doll to be.
Based on the awards season, Robert Downey will probably win, although I didn't find him as convincing as his fellow nominees in this category. It's one of those instances where my least favorite performance among the nominees is the crowd favorite. Go figure.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Annette Bening in "Nyad"
Lily Gladstone in "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Hüller in "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan in "Maestro"
Emma Stone in "Poor Things"
This is the strongest category almost every year. All five deserve to win. While the Academy will go with Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone, my pick is a tie between Sandra Hüller and Annette Bening, two very different yet equally mesmerizing performances.
The sheer physicality of Bening's tour de force performance was awe-inspiring. I viscerally felt her physical pain. Sandra Huller's subtle psychological performance in "Anatomy of a Fall" was equally impressive. I felt her emotional pain to my very core.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Emily Blunt in "Oppenheimer"
Danielle Brooks in "The Color Purple"
America Ferrera in "Barbie"
Jodie Foster in "Nyad"
Da'Vine Joy Randolph in "The Holdovers"
I loved Jodie Foster in "Nyad ."It was perhaps one of the most effortless performances of her illustrious career. Something is different about Jodie Foster's acting these days, and I like it. Stay tuned for a review of the current True Detective: Night Country season on this blog site for a more detailed discussion of one of my favorite actresses.
Ultimately, Da'Vine Joy Randolph is my pick in this category and will likely be the Oscar winner.
Best animated feature film of the year
"The Boy and the Heron" by Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
"Elemental" Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
"Nimona" Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan, and Julie Zackary
"Robot Dreams" Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
"Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
The odds favor "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse". I am a sucker for Miyazaki (he can do no wrong), and so my pick is "The Boy and the Heron".
Achievement in cinematography
"El Conde" Edward Lachman
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Rodrigo Prieto
"Maestro" Matthew Libatique
"Oppenheimer" Hoyte van Hoytema
"Poor Things" Robbie Ryan
Christopher Nolan is currently at the top of his game, and his innovative film work deserves recognition. A huge part of this achievement in "Oppenheimer" rests on the cinematography of Hoyte van Hoytema. The combination of IMAX 65 mm and 65mm large-format film, including IMAX black-and-white photography, which I was able to witness in the intended projection format in San Francisco, was worth the three-week wait for seats.
Achievement in costume design
"Barbie" Jacqueline Durran
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Jacqueline West
"Napoleon" Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
"Oppenheimer" Ellen Mirojnick
"Poor Things" Holly Waddington
I am always confused about this category. Are we rewarding an overall aesthetic, innovation, or how the costumes serve the narrative or the characters, or maybe a combination of factors? I also wonder if historical costume dramas have an unfair advantage in this category.
It's a two-way tie here for me between "Barbie" for innovative cohesiveness of vision and "Napoleon" for overall aesthetic serving the narrative. "Poor Things" could pull out a win here as it ticked many criteria boxes.
Achievement in directing
"Anatomy of a Fall" Justine Triet
"Killers of the Flower Moon" by Martin Scorsese
"Oppenheimer" Christopher Nolan
"Poor Things" Yorgos Lanthimos
"The Zone of Interest" Jonathan Glazer
I don't mean to take away from the contributions of any of the nominated directors, but I am of the "snub outrage" camp who believe Greta Gerwig should have been nominated here. And yet, I would be hard-pressed to cut any of the nominees to make room for her.
If I were to remove one to make room for Greta Gerwig, it would probably be Martin Scorsese, arguably one of the best American directors in the history of cinema. "Goodfellas" continues to rank at the top of my ever-shifting and growing list of favorite movies of all time. Because of his stature, I tend to, perhaps unjustly, measure him against his entire oeuvre. For me, "Killers of the Flower Moon," a solid movie, falls into the mid-range of his work.
Justine Triet deserves an honorable mention as writer/director of "Anatomy of a Fall." She like Greta Gerwig is part of a newish (more common in indie film-making) and impactful trend among Oscar nominees, who also wrote/and or co-wrote the script she directed. I am not forgetting Woody Allen, who won Best Director and Screenplay for "Annie Hall" (1977) although it was a bit of an anomaly at the time. In terms of the more recent trend of writer/directors, I am thinking of Bong Joon-ho of "Parasite" fame, or some of last year’s nominees “Women Talking” written and directed by Sarah Polley, “The Power of the Dog” written and directed by Jane Campion or “Tár” written and directed by Todd Field to name a few.
This year, Celine Song, who wrote and directed "Past Lives," and Wim Wenders, who directed and co-wrote "Perfect Days," were not nominated in the best director category. However, I would argue that both films are Oscar-nominated in their respective categories due to an intangible cohesiveness that emerges when directors write their movies.
My nominee here is Christopher Nolan for "Oppenheimer," I think he will win.
Best documentary feature film
"Bobi Wine: The People's President" Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
"The Eternal Memory" Maite Alberdi
"Four Daughters" Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
"To Kill a Tiger" Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
"20 Days in Mariupol" Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, and Raney Aronson-Rath
My personal favorite is "The Eternal Memory". I have always been fascinated with the interplay of memory, history, and film. Filmmakers such as Tarkovski, Renais, Hitchcock, and Kurosawa, who have played with the notion of memory on film in various ways, are my go-to's. The Image Journal’s list of 25 top films on memory is an almost exact copy of my all-time favorites. What is particularly interesting for me in "The Eternal Memory" is the juxtaposition between the personal memory loss brought on by dementia and philosophical ruminations on cultural and historical memory. This interplay of memory spheres is made possible by the central figure in the film Chilean journalist Augusto Gonogara, who lived and documented Chilean history at the front line during its most tumultuous times and is now beginning to lose his own memories to Alzheimer’s.
"20 Days in Mariupol" will probably win for its timeliness and subject matter.
Best documentary short film
"The ABCs of Book Banning" Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
"The Barber of Little Rock" by John Hoffman and Christine Turner
"Island in Between" S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
"The Last Repair Shop" Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
"Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó" Sean Wang and Sam Davis
All these documentary shorts were informative and touching. I hope they can seen by as many people as possible. The messages conveyed in each of these films are so important.
My pick here is "The Last Repair Shop." It is cinematically the strongest, weaving multiple storylines and messages into a cohesive visual symphony. If the criteria were which movie I would want people to see in terms of its message and educational value, my pick would be "The Barber of Little Rock."
Achievement in film editing
"Anatomy of a Fall" Laurent Sénéchal
"The Holdovers" Kevin Tent
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Thelma Schoonmaker
"Oppenheimer" Jennifer Lame
"Poor Things" Yorgos Mavropsaridis
"Oppenheimer" is my choice here in line with my appreciation of the film as a whole.
Best international feature film of the year
"Io Capitano" Italy
"Perfect Days" Japan
"Society of the Snow" Spain
"The Teachers' Lounge" Germany
"The Zone of Interest" United Kingdom
My personal favorite is "Perfect Days". This may be Wim Wenders' best work and given his memorable contributions to New German Cinema in films such "Paris, Texas" and "Wings of Desire" this is indubitably a bold claim. Koji Yukosho, whom I was first introduced to in the role of a young gangster in "Tampopo" and grew to appreciate in "Shall We Dance," gives arguably his best career performance. He is still kakkoi 格好いい (kakkoi), meaning attractive, good-looking, stylish, cool, smooth, neat, and with-it, but in a novel, appealingly mature way. As with Jodie Foster, I see a striking evolution in an actor I have admired for decades.
I also really liked "Io Capitano," which presents a unique, visually stunning, and strangely unpolarized perspective on the politicized and timely subject of immigration.
The "Zone of Interest" will probably win; I don't have a problem with that. Please see my Instagram post about the mystery novel Ashes in Snow for those who like this film.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
"Golda" Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
"Maestro" Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
"Oppenheimer" Luisa Abel
"Poor Things" Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
"Society of the Snow" Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
My choice here is "Poor Things" for an overall achievement.
Suppose achievement in this category is based on verisimilitude or how closely the makeup artist transformed the actor into the image of the person they are portraying. Both "Golda" and "Maestro" must be acknowledged in that case. Helen Mirren's physical transformation into Golda is more convincing than Ingrid Bergman's in A Woman Called Golda (1982). There is no trace of the DCI Jane Tennison of Prime Suspect fame in this new iteration of Golda Meir. The makeup artists of "Maestro" did a formidable job of transforming Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein, notwithstanding the nose controversy.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
"American Fiction" Laura Karpman
"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" John Williams
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Robbie Robertson
"Oppenheimer" Ludwig Göransson
"Poor Things" Jerskin Fendrix
Ludwig Göransson is my pick here. His score supports and enhances "Oppenheimer."
Recommendations for further reading:
I have long been interested in film scores and live music accompaniment of silent films. There are many books on the subject, but I would like to single out two as recommendations for those who want to explore the subject.
Settling the Score: Music and the Classical Hollywood Film by Kathryn Kalinak (1992)
After more than thirty years, this book still represents the most comprehensive overview of the role of music in classical Hollywood cinema. It is a must-read for any film historian.
Scoring the Screen: The Secret Language of Film Music by Andy Hill (2017)
This more recent survey of film scoring is geared toward musicians and is impressive in scope and practicality. Even if writing a score isn't in the stars, this book will change how you view the craft.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"The Fire Inside" from "Flamin' Hot"
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"I'm Just Ken" from "Barbie"
Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
"It Never Went Away" from "American Symphony"
Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
"Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" from "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Music and Lyric by Scott George
"What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie"
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
This is an interesting Oscar category for me. Lately, nominated songs have often been their own thing and are only sometimes selected based on how they work within a film. Going back to my first Oscars, hearing "Up Where We Belong" still conjures up images of Richard Gere and Debra Winger. That doesn't happen to me with recent Oscar original song nominees.
My pick this year is also the clear favorite, "What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie."
However, I also need to single out "It Never Went Away" from "American Symphony," a wonderful documentary film that wasn't nominated in the documentary category. You can find lots of opinions about this online.
Billie Eilish/ Finneas O'Connell and Jon Batiste continue to make exciting music, and it is great to see their work showcased in the movies.
Best motion picture of the year
"American Fiction" Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
"Anatomy of a Fall" by Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
"Barbie" David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
"The Holdovers" Mark Johnson, Producer
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
"Maestro" Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
"Oppenheimer" Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
"Past Lives" David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
"Poor Things" Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
"The Zone of Interest" James Wilson, Producer
This was a great year for films. Based on the combined wow factor of a compelling story, great acting, innovative cinematography, and editing, I pick, you guessed it, "Oppenheimer," and there is a good chance that the Academy will agree with me.
Achievement in production design
"Barbie" Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"Killers of the Flower Moon" Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
"Napoleon" Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
"Oppenheimer" Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
"Poor Things" Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
For me, the clear winner in this category is "Barbie." This film felt fresh and innovative at a time when remakes reign supreme.
Best animated short film
"Letter to a Pig" Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
"Ninety-Five Senses" Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
"Our Uniform" Yegane Moghaddam
"Pachyderme" Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
"WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko" Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
This is a perplexing category. The production costs of WAR IS OVER are a multiple of, say, "Our Uniform." It seems unfair to compare these films based on their budgets. From a graphic design standpoint, I enjoyed the textural quality of "Our Uniform," which felt different and fresh. The story of "Pachyderme" was touching. "Letter to a Pig" was the most visually striking. "WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, was the most polished and strongest offering but clearly with a huge advantage. It is my predicted winner.
Best live-action short film
"The After" Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
"Invincible" Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
"Knight of Fortune" Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
"Red, White and Blue" Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
"The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar" Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
I loved all of these films and wished more people could see them. Short films may well be the most underrated form of artistic expression out there. The short film that stood out for me and brought me to tears is "Invincible".
"The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar," the entry I expect will win, was delightfully whimsical and very Wes Anderson. It’s star-studded unlike any short film in recent memory with wonderful performances by Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, Dev Patel and Ben Kingsley (the “Gandhi” of my very first Oscars).
Achievement in sound
"The Creator" Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
"Maestro" Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One" Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
"Oppenheimer" Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
"The Zone of Interest" Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
"Maestro" deserves the win in this category due to the seamless handling of diegetic and non-diegetic sound. The Oscar will probably go to "Oppenheimer" if it sweeps.
Achievement in visual effects
"The Creator" Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
"Godzilla Minus One" Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One" Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
"Napoleon" Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
I only saw "Napoleon" among the nominated films and, therefore, am not in a position to make the call here. According to the betting sites, the odds favor "Godzilla Minus One," so that would be my best guess.
Adapted screenplay
"American Fiction" Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
"Barbie" Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
"Oppenheimer" Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
"Poor Things" Screenplay by Tony McNamara
"The Zone of Interest" Written by Jonathan Glazer
My choice in this category is "American Fiction". I am in the middle of reading Erasure, on which the screenplay is based, and the more I read, the more I realize how well the book was adapted into film. I don't know if the Academy will agree with me on this one. I am also aware of how challenging race satire can be to get right. For those who enjoy American Fiction, I suggest reading Yellow Face by R.F. Kuang, a female mystery albeit not in the traditional sense. In the kind of rabbit hole intertextuality that I appreciate, look at R.F. Kuang's critical assessment of "American Fiction" in Time magazine.
The Academy might go with Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach for “Barbie” to compensate for her omission in the directing category.
Original screenplay
"Anatomy of a Fall" Screenplay - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
"The Holdovers, "Written by David Hemingson
"Maestro" Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
"May December" Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
"Past Lives" Written by Celine Song
I like the screenplay of "Past Lives" in its effective simplicity and its inspired use of a singular leitmotif.
However, my pick here is "Anatomy of a Fall," which is in a league of its own in terms of characterization and plot development. It is a female-driven mystery that deserves extra treatment on our website. Stay tuned.